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Teams heading to the draft lottery with projected #1 pick odds
20-52 (0.278)
GB from 1st
37
Draft Need
Franchise point guard
Young Asset: N/A (age 0)
24-48 (0.333)
GB from 1st
33
Draft Need
Defensive anchor
Young Asset: N/A (age 0)
| # | Team | Record | #1 Odds | GB | Young Asset | Draft Need |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20-52 | 14% | 37 | N/A | Franchise point guard | |
| 2 | 22-50 | 14% | 35 | N/A | Wing scorer | |
| 3 | 24-48 | 14% | 33 | N/A | Defensive anchor | |
| 4 | 25-47 | 12.5% | 32 | N/A | Two-way wing | |
| 5 | 26-46 | 10.5% | 31 | N/A | Playmaking guard | |
| 6 | 28-44 | 9% | 29 | N/A | Star wing | |
| 7 | 28-44 | 7.5% | 29 | N/A | Franchise cornerstone | |
| 8 | 30-42 | 6% | 27 | N/A | Elite scorer | |
| 9 | 35-37 | 4.5% | 22 | Ja Morant | 3-and-D wing | |
| 10 | 36-36 | 3% | 21 | N/A | Lead ball-handler | |
| 11 | 37-35 | 2% | 20 | N/A | Defensive big | |
| 12 | 38-34 | 1.5% | 19 | Trae Young | Rim protector | |
| 13 | 39-33 | 1% | 18 | Stephen Curry | Young guard prospect | |
| 14 | 40-32 | 0.5% | 17 | N/A | Shooting guard |
The NBA Draft Lottery determines the selection order for the 14 teams that missed the playoffs. The current format, introduced in 2019, flattens the odds for the bottom three teams (14% each) to discourage extreme tanking while still rewarding the league's weakest teams with better draft position.
The most successful rebuilding teams use lottery picks as cornerstones while developing a culture of competition. Teams like Oklahoma City have shown that strategic rebuilding through the draft can create championship contenders within a few seasons when combined with strong player development.
The 14 teams that miss the playoffs enter the draft lottery. The three worst records each have a 14% chance at the #1 pick. A lottery machine with weighted ping-pong balls determines the top four picks, with remaining teams slotted by record.
The Washington Wizards (20-52) have a 14% chance at the #1 overall pick.
Yes. Under the current lottery format, the worst team can fall as low as the 5th pick. The lottery determines picks 1-4, with the remaining teams slotted by reverse record. This was designed to discourage extreme tanking.
Tanking is when a team intentionally loses games (by resting players or playing young, inexperienced lineups) to improve their draft lottery odds. While frowned upon, it's a strategy rebuilding teams use to acquire top draft talent.