The NBA Draft Lottery: Hope and Heartbreak
The draft lottery was introduced in 1985 to prevent teams from tanking. Since then, it has produced franchise-altering moments: Cleveland getting LeBron James in 2003, Portland passing on Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie in 1984, and the Warriors finding Stephen Curry at pick 7 in 2009.
Our grading system evaluates each pick based on career accomplishments relative to draft position. A first overall pick who becomes a Hall of Famer earns an A+. One who busts completely gets an F. The data reveals that roughly 40% of top-3 picks become All-Stars, while 15% become outright busts.
The Biggest Steals and Busts
Michael Jordan at pick 3 is the greatest steal in draft history — two teams passed on the GOAT. Anthony Bennett at pick 1 in 2013 is widely considered the biggest bust, averaging just 4.4 PPG in his brief career. The lesson: even with all the scouting in the world, the draft remains a gamble.
Frequently Asked Questions
When did the NBA draft lottery start?
The NBA draft lottery was introduced in 1985. Before that, the worst team in each conference received the first pick. The lottery was created to discourage intentional losing.
How are lottery picks graded?
Picks are graded on career PPG, All-Star selections, championships, and overall impact relative to draft position. A+ means franchise-changing talent, F means a clear bust.
What percentage of #1 picks become All-Stars?
Roughly 55-60% of #1 overall picks make at least one All-Star team. About 25-30% become multi-time All-Stars. The rest range from solid starters to outright busts.
Can I download this lottery data?
Yes, use the CSV or JSON export buttons to download the complete lottery history dataset.