Scoring in the Paint
Points in the paint remain the most efficient scoring play in basketball. Layups and dunks convert at 60-70%, making them roughly twice as efficient as mid-range jumpers. Teams that can consistently score inside force defenses to collapse, opening up three-point opportunities on the perimeter.
Paint scoring correlates strongly with winning. Teams that lead the league in points in the paint tend to be among the top offenses. This is because paint scoring often comes with free throw opportunities -- drawing contact on drives creates and-one possibilities and trips to the line.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is paint scoring so efficient?
Shots taken close to the basket convert at 60-70%, the highest percentage zone on the court. This is because layups and dunks face less air time and distance, making them inherently easier shots.
How does paint dominance affect team offense?
When a team scores effectively in the paint, defenses must collapse to protect the rim. This collapse creates open three-point shots on the perimeter, making the entire offense more efficient.
Which positions score most in the paint?
Centers and power forwards naturally score the most in the paint due to their proximity to the basket. However, athletic guards like Ja Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also score heavily in the paint through drives.
Is paint scoring declining in the three-point era?
Total paint scoring has remained relatively stable. While mid-range shots have decreased dramatically, the shots that replaced them split between threes and rim attempts. The paint remains a priority for efficient offenses.
How is paint scoring estimated here?
We estimate paint scoring using position-based shot distribution models and overall FG%. Centers are estimated to score ~55% of their points in the paint, while guards score ~25%, with adjustments for individual efficiency.