The Value of Offensive Rebounding
Each offensive rebound creates an entirely new possession for the offense. Given that an average NBA possession is worth about 1.1 points, offensive rebounds have significant point value. Second-chance opportunities also tend to produce high-percentage shots, since they often occur close to the basket after a missed shot.
Offensive rebounding has declined in the three-point era as teams prioritize getting back in transition defense over crashing the offensive glass. However, teams that can generate offensive rebounds without sacrificing transition defense gain a meaningful advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
How valuable is an offensive rebound?
An offensive rebound is worth approximately 1.1 points in expected value because it creates a new possession. Second-chance shots also convert at a higher rate since they're typically close to the basket.
Why has offensive rebounding declined?
Modern NBA teams prioritize transition defense, pulling players back rather than crashing the offensive glass. The three-point revolution means long rebounds bounce further from the basket, making offensive rebounds harder to grab.
Which players excel at offensive rebounding?
Athletic bigs who combine motor and positioning dominate ORB. Players like Steven Adams, Andre Drummond, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are known for relentless offensive rebounding that creates extra possessions.
How are offensive rebounds estimated here?
We estimate ORB as a percentage of total rebounds based on position. Centers typically have about 30% of their rebounds on the offensive glass, while guards have closer to 10%.
Do second-chance points correlate with winning?
Yes. Teams that generate more second-chance points win more games, both because they're getting extra possessions and because those possessions often produce efficient shots close to the basket.