Loading
Team performance vs. expected results based on roster talent
| # | Team | Coach | Talent | Exp W% | Act W% | Impact | Verdict | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahl Mosley | 0 | 0.15 | 0.625 | +47.5 | Over | 45-27 | |
| 2 | Tyronn Lue | 0 | 0.15 | 0.625 | +47.5 | Over | 45-27 | |
| 3 | Erik Spoelstra | 0 | 0.15 | 0.611 | +46.1 | Over | 44-28 | |
| 4 | Kenny Atkinson | 24.6 | 0.307 | 0.722 | +41.5 | Over | 52-20 | |
| 5 | Willie Green | 0 | 0.15 | 0.556 | +40.6 | Over | 40-32 | |
| 6 | Rick Carlisle | 19.2 | 0.24 | 0.639 | +39.9 | Over | 46-26 | |
| 7 | Mark Daigneault | 32.2 | 0.403 | 0.792 | +38.9 | Over | 57-15 | |
| 8 | Chris Finch | 23.9 | 0.298 | 0.681 | +38.2 | Over | 49-23 | |
| 9 | Ime Udoka | 0 | 0.15 | 0.514 | +36.4 | Over | 37-35 | |
| 10 | Tom Thibodeau | 27.5 | 0.344 | 0.694 | +35.1 | Over | 50-22 | |
| 11 | Billy Donovan | 0 | 0.15 | 0.5 | +35 | Over | 36-36 | |
| 12 | Michael Malone | 30.8 | 0.385 | 0.694 | +31 | Over | 50-22 | |
| 13 | Mike Brown | 24.7 | 0.309 | 0.583 | +27.4 | Over | 42-30 | |
| 14 | Darko Rajakovic | 0 | 0.15 | 0.417 | +26.7 | Over | 30-42 | |
| 15 | Quin Snyder | 22.1 | 0.276 | 0.528 | +25.2 | Over | 38-34 | |
| 16 | Steve Kerr | 23.8 | 0.297 | 0.542 | +24.5 | Over | 39-33 | |
| 17 | Jason Kidd | 33 | 0.413 | 0.653 | +24 | Over | 47-25 | |
| 18 | Jordi Fernandez | 0 | 0.15 | 0.389 | +23.9 | Over | 28-44 | |
| 19 | Will Hardy | 0 | 0.15 | 0.389 | +23.9 | Over | 28-44 | |
| 20 | Gregg Popovich | 0 | 0.15 | 0.361 | +21.1 | Over | 26-46 | |
| 21 | Charles Lee | 0 | 0.15 | 0.347 | +19.7 | Over | 25-47 | |
| 22 | Taylor Jenkins | 23.7 | 0.297 | 0.486 | +18.9 | Over | 35-37 | |
| 23 | Chauncey Billups | 0 | 0.15 | 0.333 | +18.3 | Over | 24-48 | |
| 24 | J.B. Bickerstaff | 0 | 0.15 | 0.306 | +15.6 | Over | 22-50 | |
| 25 | Joe Mazzulla | 48.3 | 0.604 | 0.75 | +14.6 | Over | 54-18 | |
| 26 | Brian Keefe | 0 | 0.15 | 0.278 | +12.8 | Over | 20-52 | |
| 27 | Nick Nurse | 36.7 | 0.459 | 0.569 | +11.1 | Over | 41-31 | |
| 28 | Doc Rivers | 57.8 | 0.722 | 0.667 | -5.5 | Under | 48-24 | |
| 29 | Mike Budenholzer | 55 | 0.688 | 0.611 | -7.7 | Under | 44-28 | |
| 30 | JJ Redick | 55.2 | 0.69 | 0.597 | -9.3 | Under | 43-29 |
Coaching is the most difficult factor to quantify in basketball. Great coaches maximize their roster's potential through strategic adjustments, player development, culture building, and in-game management. Our coaching impact metric attempts to isolate this effect by comparing actual performance against what the raw talent should produce.
The best NBA coaches impact their teams in ways that don't show up in box scores: managing egos, building trust, developing young players, creating a winning culture, and making the right adjustments in pressure moments. Coaches like Erik Spoelstra and Steve Kerr have consistently overperformed with varying roster talent.
Coaching impact compares a team's actual win percentage to their expected win percentage based on roster talent. A positive impact means the coach is getting more wins than the talent suggests; negative means underperforming.
Jamahl Mosley (Orlando Magic) has the highest coaching impact score of +47.5, meaning the team is winning significantly more than expected based on roster talent.
Coaching impact is inherently difficult to isolate. Our metric provides an estimate by comparing performance vs talent, but doesn't capture intangibles like player development, culture building, and in-game adjustments.
Poor coaching schemes, bad roster fit, lack of defensive identity, injury management issues, and locker room dysfunction can all cause talented rosters to underperform. Coaching is the multiplier that either elevates or suppresses roster talent.