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Teams that lead at halftime and how often those leads convert to wins. League average halftime lead conversion rate: 74.5%.
| # | Team | Lead at Half | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 70.7% | 75.8% |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 69.5% | 79.3% |
| 3 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 68.8% | 77.9% |
| 4 | Dallas Mavericks | 68.6% | 76.8% |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 68.4% | 78.2% |
| 6 | Orlando Magic | 67.8% | 75.4% |
| 7 | Milwaukee Bucks | 67% | 78% |
| 8 | Los Angeles Lakers | 66.9% | 75% |
| 9 | New York Knicks | 66.8% | 75.4% |
| 10 | Denver Nuggets | 66.8% | 78.4% |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 66.2% | 75.6% |
| 12 | Miami Heat | 65.3% | 76.2% |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | 65.3% | 75.2% |
| 14 | Golden State Warriors | 65.3% | 73.1% |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks | 63.8% | 72.9% |
| 16 | Los Angeles Clippers | 63.8% | 75.4% |
| 17 | New Orleans Pelicans | 63.7% | 73.3% |
| 18 | Sacramento Kings | 63.5% | 74.8% |
| 19 | Philadelphia 76ers | 63.1% | 75.5% |
| 20 | Chicago Bulls | 63% | 73.5% |
| 21 | Brooklyn Nets | 60.7% | 70.8% |
| 22 | Memphis Grizzlies | 60.6% | 74.3% |
| 23 | Toronto Raptors | 60.5% | 72.3% |
| 24 | Houston Rockets | 60.4% | 75.7% |
| 25 | Charlotte Hornets | 59.4% | 72.2% |
| 26 | Utah Jazz | 58.7% | 70.8% |
| 27 | San Antonio Spurs | 56.8% | 70.4% |
| 28 | Detroit Pistons | 56.2% | 70.6% |
| 29 | Portland Trail Blazers | 56% | 71% |
| 30 | Washington Wizards | 55.3% | 71.2% |
Download halftime leader data.
Historically, NBA teams that lead at halftime win approximately 75-80% of those games. This makes the halftime score one of the strongest single-moment predictors of game outcome. Elite teams in the 2025-26 season convert halftime leads at even higher rates, sometimes exceeding 85%.
The flip side is equally interesting: comeback frequency analysis shows that certain teams are particularly good at erasing halftime deficits. These teams often feature dominant fourth quarter scorers who elevate their game under pressure.
Across the NBA, teams leading at halftime win approximately 75-80% of games. The conversion rate increases with the size of the lead — a 10+ point halftime lead converts at roughly 90%.
Several teams have overcome 25+ point halftime deficits. The largest halftime comeback in recent memory involved a 28-point deficit overcome in the second half.
Absolutely. Coaching adjustments at halftime — changing defensive schemes, adjusting rotations, and exploiting tendencies identified in the first half — are a significant factor in second-half performance swings.