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How often do trailing teams fight back? League average comeback rate from halftime deficit: 27.9%. Some teams never quit.
27.9%
Avg Comeback Rate
239
Total Comeback Wins
6.8%
Avg Down 15+ Win%
| # | Team | Trail@Half W% | Down 10+ W% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston Celtics | 34.5% | 18.6% |
| 2 | Denver Nuggets | 33.4% | 15.4% |
| 3 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 33.1% | 16.4% |
| 4 | Milwaukee Bucks | 32.8% | 15% |
| 5 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 32.3% | 19.3% |
| 6 | Dallas Mavericks | 31.1% | 16% |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 30.2% | 16.6% |
| 8 | Houston Rockets | 29.8% | 15.1% |
| 9 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 29.4% | 15.8% |
| 10 | Philadelphia 76ers | 29.4% | 13.5% |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 29.3% | 14.6% |
| 12 | Orlando Magic | 29% | 15.6% |
| 13 | Los Angeles Clippers | 29% | 15.6% |
| 14 | New York Knicks | 28.9% | 15.4% |
| 15 | Phoenix Suns | 28.7% | 16.6% |
| 16 | Los Angeles Lakers | 28.4% | 14% |
| 17 | Sacramento Kings | 28.2% | 14.9% |
| 18 | Memphis Grizzlies | 27.7% | 14.7% |
| 19 | Chicago Bulls | 26.5% | 12.5% |
| 20 | New Orleans Pelicans | 26.1% | 14.5% |
| 21 | Golden State Warriors | 25.8% | 15.5% |
| 22 | Atlanta Hawks | 25.6% | 14.1% |
| 23 | Charlotte Hornets | 24.9% | 10.2% |
| 24 | Toronto Raptors | 24.8% | 12.4% |
| 25 | Washington Wizards | 23.6% | 9.2% |
| 26 | Portland Trail Blazers | 23.2% | 11.2% |
| 27 | Brooklyn Nets | 22.8% | 12% |
| 28 | Utah Jazz | 22.8% | 10.8% |
| 29 | Detroit Pistons | 22.6% | 10.8% |
| 30 | San Antonio Spurs | 22.2% | 12.8% |
Download comeback analysis data.
NBA comeback probability follows a surprisingly predictable pattern based on the deficit size and time remaining. A 10-point deficit entering the fourth quarter results in a win roughly 15-20% of the time. By comparison, a 20-point deficit drops that probability to under 5%. Teams with elite closers like Luka Doncic significantly outperform these baseline probabilities.
The largest regular-season comeback is 36 points, achieved by the Utah Jazz against the Denver Nuggets in 1996. In the playoffs, the largest comeback is 39 points by the Los Angeles Clippers against the Washington Wizards in 2019.
Key factors include depth of roster, star availability, opponent fatigue (especially on back-to-back games), home court advantage, and pace of play. Faster-paced teams can close gaps more quickly.
Large comebacks are more common in the regular season due to uneven motivation levels and load management. Playoff teams rarely let up, making big comebacks rarer but more dramatic.