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Analyze playoff bracket probabilities based on regular season performance
The Bracket Analyzer projects playoff matchups based on current standings and calculates win probabilities for each series. First-round matchups use the standard 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5 seeding format. Later rounds are simulated with randomized outcomes.
Win probability is calculated using the log5 method, which compares each team's win percentage to estimate the likelihood of winning a series. Click “Re-Simulate” to see alternative bracket outcomes and explore different paths to the conference finals.
Probabilities use each team's win percentage in a head-to-head formula. A team with a 70% win rate facing a team with a 50% win rate would have approximately a 58% chance of winning the series.
Second round and conference finals matchups depend on first-round results, which are simulated with random variance. This reflects the inherent uncertainty of playoff basketball.