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Which draft positions produce the most value? Data from 250+ historical players.
Picks 1-3
Avg 19.8 PPG | 44 HOF
Picks 4-14
Avg 18 PPG | 33 HOF
Picks 15-30
Avg 14.8 PPG | 5 HOF
Round 2+
Avg 17.1 PPG | 23 HOF
The most coveted draft positions. Franchises build around these selections.
| Player | Draft | PPG | RPG | APG | GP | HOF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jordan1984-2003 | Pick #3 | 30.1 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 1,072 | HOF |
| Wilt Chamberlain1959-1973 | Territorial Pick | 30.1 | 22.9 | 4.4 | 1,045 | HOF |
| Luka Doncic2018-present | Pick #3 | 28.7 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 420 | |
| Joel Embiid2016-present | Pick #3 | 27.9 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 480 | |
| Elgin Baylor1958-1971 | Pick #1 | 27.4 | 13.5 | 4.3 | 846 | HOF |
| Kevin Durant2007-present | Pick #2 | 27.3 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1,063 | 75th |
| LeBron James2003-present | Pick #1 | 27.1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 1,492 | 75th |
| Jerry West1960-1974 | Pick #2 | 27 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 932 | HOF |
+ 75 more players in this range
Lottery picks outside the top 3. Still high-value selections with All-Star upside.
| Player | Draft | PPG | RPG | APG | GP | HOF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young2018-present | Pick #5 | 25.3 | 3.7 | 9.5 | 430 | |
| Damian Lillard2012-present | Pick #6 | 25.1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 850 | |
| Kobe Bryant1996-2016 | Pick #13 | 25 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 1,346 | HOF |
| Karl Malone1985-2004 | Pick #13 | 25 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 1,476 | HOF |
| Stephen Curry2009-present | Pick #7 | 24.8 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 956 | 75th |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander2018-present | Pick #11 | 24.8 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 390 | |
| Donovan Mitchell2017-present | Pick #13 | 24.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 480 | |
| Larry Bird1979-1992 | Pick #6 | 24.3 | 10 | 6.3 | 897 | HOF |
+ 81 more players in this range
Late first-rounders. Teams find hidden gems and role players here.
| Player | Draft | PPG | RPG | APG | GP | HOF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo2013-present | Pick #15 | 23.4 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 790 | 75th |
| Kawhi Leonard2011-present | Pick #15 | 20 | 6.4 | 3 | 640 | |
| Tyrese Maxey2020-present | Pick #21 | 19.8 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 300 | |
| Pascal Siakam2016-present | Pick #27 | 18.5 | 7 | 3.8 | 560 | |
| Desmond Bane2020-present | Pick #30 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 280 | |
| Jimmy Butler2011-present | Pick #30 | 18.3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 830 | |
| Latrell Sprewell1992-2005 | Pick #24 | 18.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 846 | |
| Larry Nance1981-1994 | Pick #20 | 17.1 | 8 | 2.6 | 920 |
+ 31 more players in this range
The ultimate value picks. These players defied expectations to become stars.
| Player | Draft | PPG | RPG | APG | GP | HOF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Gervin1972-1986 | 1974 ABA Dispersal Draft | 26.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 791 | HOF |
| George Mikan1948-1956 | 1947 NBL Draft | 23.1 | 13.4 | 2.8 | 439 | HOF |
| Alex English1976-1991 | Round 2, Pick #23 | 21.5 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1,193 | HOF |
| Nikola Jokic2015-present | Round 2, Pick #41 | 21.3 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 680 | |
| Gilbert Arenas2001-2012 | Round 2, Pick #31 | 20.7 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 569 | |
| Moses Malone1976-1995 | Undrafted / ABA | 20.6 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 1,329 | HOF |
| Dan Issel1970-1985 | Undrafted / ABA | 20.4 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 718 | HOF |
| World B. Free1975-1988 | Round 2, Pick #23 | 20.3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 886 |
+ 29 more players in this range
Players drafted outside the top 10 who delivered elite production. Value score weights career PPG against draft position.
| # | Player | Draft Info | PPG | RPG | APG | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Gervin1972-1986 | 1974 ABA Dispersal Draft | 26.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 262 |
| 2 | George Mikan1948-1956 | 1947 NBL Draft | 23.1 | 13.4 | 2.8 | 231 |
| 3 | Moses Malone1976-1995 | 1974 ABA Draft (undrafted by NBA) | 20.6 | 12.2 | 1.4 | 206 |
| 4 | Dan Issel1970-1985 | 1970 ABA Draft | 20.4 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 204 |
| 5 | Jack Twyman1955-1966 | 1955 Round 2 | 19.2 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 192 |
| 6 | Spencer Haywood1969-1983 | Hardship Pick 1970 | 19.2 | 9.3 | 1.8 | 192 |
| 7 | Connie Hawkins1967-1976 | Undrafted (banned then reinstated) | 18.7 | 8 | 4.1 | 187 |
| 8 | Dolph Schayes1948-1964 | 1948 BAA Draft | 18.5 | 12.1 | 3.1 | 185 |
| 9 | Drazen Petrovic1989-1993 | 1986 Round 3, Pick 60 | 15.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 185 |
| 10 | Bob Cousy1950-1970 | 1950 Draft | 18.4 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 184 |
| 11 | Chet Walker1962-1975 | 1962 Round 2 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 182 |
| 12 | Cliff Hagan1956-1966 | 1953 Round 3 | 18 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 180 |
| 13 | Bill Sharman1950-1961 | 1950 Round 2 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 3 | 178 |
| 14 | Bob Love1966-1977 | 1965 Round 4 | 17.6 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 176 |
| 15 | Nikola Jokic2015-present | 2014 Round 2, Pick 41 | 21.3 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 175 |
Players drafted at pick 13 or later who averaged 20+ PPG for their career. These are the true steals.
Los Angeles Lakers
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
Phoenix Suns
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
Portland Trail Blazers
Philadelphia 76ers
Career performance of players drafted in the top 3, ranked by career scoring average.
A draft bust is typically a high pick (top 5) who fails to meet expectations. Factors include:
Note: Our database focuses on successful players, so true “busts” are underrepresented here. The absence of a high pick from our database is itself telling.
A draft steal is a late pick who dramatically outperforms expectations. The best examples:
International scouting and the second round have produced increasingly valuable finds in the modern NBA.
The NBA Draft is the primary way teams acquire young talent, and draft position has historically been the strongest predictor of career success. Top 3 picks have the highest probability of becoming All-Stars, MVPs, and Hall of Famers, but the drop-off is not as steep as many assume.
Our analysis of 250+ historical players reveals several key insights about draft value. The average career PPG for top 3 picks in our database significantly exceeds that of later picks, confirming the value of high selections. However, the variance is enormous — some of the greatest players ever were drafted well outside the lottery.
Nikola Jokic (Pick #41) is perhaps the greatest draft steal in NBA history, winning three MVP awards after being selected in the second round. Similarly, Kobe Bryant at Pick #13 and Giannis Antetokounmpo at Pick #15 demonstrate that elite talent can be found throughout the first round.
Modern NBA front offices increasingly invest in analytics-driven scouting, international talent pipelines, and developmental programs to maximize the value of every pick. The growth of the G League Ignite and overseas leagues has created new pathways for talent identification beyond the traditional college system.
For more basketball analysis, explore our statistics database, MVP tracker, and era comparison tool.