The Analytics of Shot Selection
The basketball analytics revolution produced one insight above all others: not all shots are created equal. A three-pointer at 35% accuracy (1.05 expected points) is worth more than a long two-pointer at 40% (0.80 expected points). Shots at the rim at 65% (1.30 expected points) are the most valuable of all. The dreaded long two-pointer, once the signature shot of NBA superstars, is mathematically the worst shot in basketball.
Our Shot Selection IQ metric evaluates players on how well their shooting profile aligns with these mathematical truths. Players who emphasize three-pointers and rim attacks while avoiding the mid-range score highest. Players who rely heavily on long two-pointers, despite being accurate, receive lower scores because their shot selection leaves points on the table.
The eFG% Revolution
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) adjusts for the fact that three-pointers are worth 50% more than two-pointers. A player who shoots 40% from three has an eFG% of 60% on those shots, equivalent to shooting 60% from two-point range. This single adjustment transformed how front offices evaluate shooters and changed roster construction permanently.
Players with high Shot IQ typically feature: a three-point percentage above 36%, an FG% above 50% (indicating they finish efficiently at the rim), and a free throw rate that suggests they draw fouls attacking the basket. The ideal scoring profile in modern basketball is: layup/dunk, corner three, above-the-break three, free throw. Everything else is suboptimal.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Shot Selection IQ?
A composite metric rating how well a player's shot distribution aligns with analytics-optimal zones (rim + three-point line). Players who avoid mid-range shots and emphasize high-value zones score higher.
Is the mid-range shot always bad?
Not always. Elite mid-range shooters like Kevin Durant (55%+ from mid-range) generate enough efficiency to justify the shot. But for 90% of players, replacing a mid-range two with a three-pointer or rim attack is statistically superior.
How is eFG% different from FG%?
eFG% gives a 50% bonus to three-pointers. Formula: eFG% = (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) / FGA. This accounts for the extra point a three-pointer provides, making it a more accurate measure of shooting efficiency than raw FG%.