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Every team rated with the Elo system — pick any two teams to predict game outcomes for the 2025-26 season
Select two teams to see their Elo-based win probability for a hypothetical matchup.
50%
Win Probability
Elo: 1500
50%
Win Probability
Elo: 1500
| # | Team | W | L | Elo | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Computing Elo ratings... | ||||||
Each bar represents a team's Elo rating. Base rating is 1500 (center line).
Download the complete Elo ratings dataset for all 30 NBA teams.
The Elo rating system was invented by Hungarian-American physicist Arpad Elo in the 1960s for ranking chess players. It has since been adopted across sports, including by FiveThirtyEight for their famous NBA predictions model, making it one of the most widely used team strength metrics in basketball analytics.
The core idea is elegant: every team starts at a baseline rating (1500). After each game, the winning team gains Elo points and the losing team loses the same amount. The key insight is that the number of points transferred depends on the expected outcome. Beating a much stronger team earns more points than beating a much weaker one, while upsets cause larger rating swings.
In the 2025-26 NBA season, Elo ratings serve as an excellent predictor of future performance. Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics sit near the top of the Elo rankings, reflecting their dominance throughout the season. Meanwhile, teams at the bottom of the Elo ladder face an uphill battle in the playoff race.
Our interactive Game Predictor lets you select any two teams and see the Elo-derived win probability for their matchup. This is the same mathematical framework used by professional sports bettors and analytics firms to assess team strength. The ratings are saved to your browser so you can track changes over time.
For complementary team analysis, explore our Net Rating Rankings, Four Factors, and Team Rankings.